ToPDAd Methodology

Integrated Assessment of Adaptation Strategies

Methodology

The ToPDAd methodology is an integrated approach to determine best strategies for businesses and regional governments to adapt to the expected medium term and long term changes in climate. The methodology consists of a phased approach integrating sectoral modelling and broader macro-economic assessments with principles from participative and robust decision making. ToPDAd proposes a stack of models and tools that has been used in the project to assess seven examples of regional adaptation problems in the energy, transport and tourism sectors. The tool set can be extended with a broader range of models and to different sectors and regions.

ToPDAd Methodology Steps

The ToPDAd methodology adheres to the following steps:

step 1 - Scenarios

ToPDAd works with scenarios combining the representative concentration pathways (RCP) RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, combined with shared socio-economic pathways (SSP) and the EU roadmaps for Energy and Transport.

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step 2 - System and sector impacts

Sector level impacts are identified using dedicated models and tools for the energy, transport and tourism sectors. Existing models were adapted to fit the ToPDAd case studies.

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step 3 - Macro-level and integrated assessment

The macro-level and integrated assessment adds information about the broader decision- context. The integrated assessment focuses on economics, but also studies implications for health and environment.

ToPDAd uses two macro-economic models, one covering a medium to long-term period from the present up till 2050 (GINFORS), and a second one covering a longer period, from now up til 2090 (GRACE). The first model provides insight in the economic potential of different de-carbonising strategies, whereas the second one analyses the effects of different adaptation strategies while being confronted with climate change impacts.

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step 4 - Value judgements and decisions

Decision makers are faced with trade-offs within and between sectors, and between various stakeholders at the regional level. To facilitate this process, ToPDAd has included an integrated method for participatory valuation and decision making.

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step 5 - Interactive exploration, analysis and learning

ToPDAd has developed a Data Exploration Tool, which visualises and allows exploration of the results and data that have been obtained using the ToPDAd integrated approach for a variety of sectors and regions.

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