Project Results

Outcomes of the ToPDAd Studies

Case Studies

The seven regional cases studies provide detailed insights into the economic effects of climate change and adaptation measures on a time scale up to 2050, with some cases continuing to 2100. The cases focus on three sectors – transport, energy and tourism, but also provide detailed information about overall (inter)national economic effects. While starting from local events and situations, the results of these studies are relevant for and applicable in wider regions in Europe. Several cases studies also provide indications for variations in losses (and sometimes gains) across Europe.

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Impact Assessments

ToPDAd uses two macro-economic models, one covering a medium to long-term period from the present up till 2050 (GINFORS), and a second one covering a longer period, from now up till 2090 (GRACE). The first model provides insight in the economic potential of different de-carbonising strategies, whereas the second one analyses the effects of different adaptation strategies while being confronted with climate change impacts.

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Demonstration of participatory decision making 

ToPDAd developed a methodology for participatory valuation and decision making called Strategy Robustness Visualisation Method (SRVM), which was applied in two demonstrations. SRVM visualises the robustness of adaptation strategies to support the decision-makers in evaluating different decision alternatives. The methodology combines modelling information created during the project with previous research and expert opinion. It is demonstrated in two cases: "Energy production in Northern Europe" and "Nuclear Energy Production in France".

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Scenario Mapping

An EU-wide GIS dataset has been developed for supporting the regional, cross-European assessment of climate change impacts. The dataset unifies, in a 25 by 25 kilometers grid, climate change, population, and economic growth projections for three RCP-SSP scenarios by decade from 2010 until 2100. Climate change projections use 1950-1999 as the baseline reference period. The gridded information includes temperature, precipitation, population, GDP, and selected output from the models employed in ToPDAd, such as changes in tourism.

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Key Messages and Lessons Learned

 

The case studies indicate that adaptation often can reduce negative economic effects of climate change. However, the macro-economic simulations demonstrate that economic growth without very significant greenhouse gas emission reductions leads to disproportionate accumulation of climate change costs after 2050. Consequently the first priority for keeping adaptation efforts manageable and affordable should be timely and substantial emission reductions.  

Even though each of the sectors – energy, transport, and tourism – faces on balance extra costs, especially after 2050, there will be winners and losers in all three sectors. Especially, the climate change induced inter-regional redistribution of competitiveness of these sectors, and sometimes of the entire affected regions, merits further analysis and policy attention.

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Click on one of the images below to access the results of a ToPDAd case study or assessment