The objective of ToPDAd (Tool-supported policy development for regional adaptation) is to support businesses and regional governments in assessing different strategies to adapt to the expected short term and long term changes in climate.
The ToPDAd methodology supports decision makers in selecting adequate and viable adaptation strategies. The integrated approach, combining sector models and macro-economic models with detailed climate change modelling, allows for detailed regional and localized assessments. At the same time, cross-sectoral and European scale effects of the examined adaptation strategies are taken into account.
ToPDAd provides a methodology and a supporting tool set to evaluate regional, national and EU-level climate change adaptation strategies and policies in a comprehensive way. It combines the latest knowledge about climate impacts and adaptation options with relevant information about the policy and macro-economic context. The focus of the project is on three crucial sectors for the European economy: energy, transport, and tourism. To illustrate how the models work, the ToPDAd methodology was applied to seven regional case studies in Europe. Through its generic and flexible setup the methodology can also be applied to other case studies and sectors.
A common set of scenarios was applied in all case studies, consisting of three different climate scenarios (RCP/SSP-scenarios) and various levels of adaptation: from a baseline without climate change, via climate change impacts without adaptation and automatic (enhanced) adaptation to planned adaptation.
Different models were run in the case studies. Firstly, one or more sector models were applied. Secondly, two macro-economic models were used to calculate the economic impacts of different climate change scenarios (RCP/SSP scenarios) and the effects of sectoral adaptation strategies on the whole economy. The macro-economic models were also the basis for assessments of health and environmental impacts of regional / sectoral adaptation. In addition, for two cases, the overall first-order economic effects of production limitations were defined.
Thirdly, the ToPDAd methodology includes information on decision-makers' preferences and valuations of impacts, gathered through a method for participatory assessment of strategies. This information was also applied in the case studies.
ToPDAd Interactive Tool
The Interactive Tool offers information on adaptation strategies to regional policy makers, researchers and others with a professional interest in climate change adaptation in the sectors energy, transport and tourism. The tool presents outcomes of ToPDAd's model calculations for seven European case studies and for three economic impact assessments. The Data Exploration tool allows the user to examine the data sets underlying the case studies and assessments.
The ToPDAd project has developed an integrated methodology to assess climate adaptation strategies and then applied it to seven regional case studies from the energy, transport and tourism sectors.
The case studies are relevant for wider regions in Europe and provide insight into the economic effects of climate change and adaptation measures on a timescale up to 2050 or 2100. Based on a unique combination of sector models and macro-economic models, the case studies provide both a sectoral outlook and information on the overall (inter)national economic effects.
With this Interactive site and its Data Exploration Tool you can explore the main conclusions and the detailed outcomes.
Among the seven case studies, two look at the effects of climate change adaptation on beach and skiing tourism respectively, by modelling changes in overnight stays. The energy case assesses how climate change will affect renewable and nuclear energy production in Northern Europe. The two transport cases are about the effects of extreme downpours on city traffic in Zürich, Switzerland and about the prospects of the Northern Sea Route in the Arctic. The two last case studies evaluate how extreme weather affects regional economic development across sectors, using the examples of flooding in London as a result of extreme downpour and production of nuclear energy in France under a combined drought and heatwave.
The ToPDAd tool set allows users to not only assess the direct damage to communities as a result of climate change - for example the damage to infrastructure, but also the indirect economic effects – for example the effects of the damaged infrastructure on reliable sectors. This allows decision makers to take either a local, micro-economic perspective on vulnerability, or a large-scale perspective on the economic consequences of climate change, such as GDP. ToPDAd also provides information on how climate change will affect the labour market and public health.
Besides a set of sectoral and macro-economic models, the ToPDAd tool set also includes information on decision-makers' preferences and valuations of impacts. By combining all these elements, ToPDAd provides decision makers with a comprehensive tool to evaluate the trade-offs within and between sectors, and between various stakeholders at regional level.