Medium-term Integrated Impact Assessment

Economic assessments up till 2050

What do the results tell us?

The GINFORS projections displayed within the interactive tool are showing the transformation towards a low carbon-society for all 27 EU Member States for a set of socioeconomic and environmental variables for the period 2010 to 2050. The results distinguish between a world where sustainable development is a strong globally accepted organizing principle (SSP1 x RCP2.6) and a divided world with striking differences in societal equality and in implementation of climate change mitigation policies (SSP4 x RCP4.5).

For the two variables gross domestic product (GDP) and population the IIASA SSP Database with its projections for these two variables has been taken as a reference (OECD results from March 2013 [V9]) to establish the more detailed GINFORS projections. The CO2 emission pathway has been calibrated gradually by a "holistic" set of climate policy instruments in the direction of the targets formulated within the IIASA RCP database. 

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What can we do with the results?

The assessment results can help decision makers, who are responsible for climate mitigation and adaptation policies, and researchers to get a better evidence based and empirically founded understanding concerning possible future socioeconomic and environmental pathways. 

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How are the results obtained?

Results were obtained using the multi-regional input-output simulation model GINFORS (global inter-industry forecasting system). The model permits wide-ranging ex ante as well as ex post simulation studies, particularly on globally-relevant topics in areas such as global energy-environment-economy developments and resource use. 

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What are the broader applications?

In general the GINFORS model permits wide-ranging scenario-based ex ante 3E simulation studies. The additional environmental, energy and resource modules permit a holistic analysis of economic and social transformation towards sustainable development and social welfare as a result of bundling alternative green/sustainable growth policy instruments.

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Key Messages and Conclusions

Europe's transition towards a low carbon society

ToPDAd medium term integrated impact assessments show the transformation towards a low carbon-society for all individual 27 EU Member States for a set of socioeconomic and environmental variables for the period 2010 to 2050. The following figures show exemplarily what impacts a global sustainability policy pathway (SSP1xRCP2.6) will have on some socioeconomic and environmental variables for all 27 EU Member States until the year 2050.

(Click on chart images to explore the data)

GDP growth (average annual growth rate per decennium) for all EU27 Member States in the SSP1 case (global sustainability) until the year 2050.

Development of disposable income of private households (average annual growth rate per decennium) for all EU27 Member States in the SSP1 case (global sustainability) until the year 2050.

Development of employment (average annual growth rate per decennium) for all EU27 Member States in the SSP1 case (global sustainability) until the year 2050.

Development of total CO2 emissions (average annual growth rate per decennium) for all EU27 Member States in the SSP1 case (global sustainability) until the year 2050.